فصلنامه پژوهش های راهبردی سیاست
پیاپی 35 (زمستان 1399)

The main issue in this article is the introduction, critique and pathology of the extent present model in future research. Future studies are generally limited to studying trends and events identified in the past and present, as well as the development of today's imagination for the future, but it is considered as an unfinished project. Future studies do not entail familiar future, unthoughtful future and genus forecasting in the future cycle. At the same time, competition, complexity, contradiction, turmoil, increasing developments, the growing role of science, and uncertainty are among the main drivers of the future, and limiting future research to the study of current trends, events, and perceptions poses a serious risk. Nonetheless, futures studies provide for the states to make desirable future, and therefore is more advanced than explanatory studies. Our main question is: What is the common pattern in the future study of states behavior in foreign policy and what are the restrictions on it? In response to this hypothesis, the pattern in the future studies of states behavior in foreign policy is extent present, and in this model, the role of familiar future, genius forecasting and unthoughtful future in scenarios making are not clear. The pattern of the extent present will be shown in the future with an example of US sanctions against Iran until 2020. The research method is scenario writing based on the extent present pattern.

The present research was performed to evaluate the Iran-US relationships in 2029 from the Iranian Professors’ point of view. Investigations were perfumed via future studies in two parts: The first part is based on library studies, and the second part is questionnaire-based field surveys, with the acquired data analyzed using MicMac and Scenario Wizard software tools. Based on the results of the analysis in the MicMac software, a total of 20 driver forces for the Iran-US relationships were identified. Considering the driver forces as descriptors of the Iran-US relationships, the most significant driver forces were found to be the government institutions context followed by the relationship-interfering countries, the role of the two countries’ leaders, future of the international system, think tanks, lobbies and pressure groups, nuclear capabilities and missile program of Iran, the role of geography, and historical records of the relationships between the two countries. Based on the outputs of the Scenario Wizard software, five scenarios were identified, including highly favorable, favorable, moderate, unfavorable, and highly unfavorable, with the development of the Iran-US relationships under the moderate scenario being highly probable.

Human Rights issue, is among the fundamental achievements of the international relations and law. The Islamic Republic of Iran, as an actor with different norms and ideologies than the norms that shape human rights, has always been exposed to various accusations by human rights activists and institutions. To the extent that this issue has gone beyond the legal nature and has been raised in a security and political framework. Now, this article seeks to examine the security situation of the human rights case of the Islamic Republic of Iran within the framework of the Copenhagen School and then examining the current situation of Trump coming to power, and finally to provide a solution in this regard. Accordingly, the question of the article is how the human rights dispute between Iran and the West is progressing. The available findings show that, given the differences in the norms shaping human rights between the West and the Islamic Republic of Iran, the process of securitizing of human rights has always been a lever to put pressure on Iran and its isolationist policy in the international environment will be on the agenda.

the dependence of the Iran economy on oil revenues has led to maintaining market share and the sale of crude oil at an optimum price to secure the economic security of the country. US sanctions on oil industry and the sale of Iranian crude oil, have stopped the cooperation and investments of oil companies operating in development, and exports crude oil also experienced a significant decline. The present paper draws the channels of influence of the Trump strategies on the Iranian oil market with using the political economic theories. The results of the study indicate that with the recent pressure of the United States and the removal of some of Iran's crude oil from the global market, oil export opportunities for Iraq, the United States, … were made available to customers in the European and Asian markets to increase their market share Also, putting pressure by American on customers and helping rivals in Iran to provide space for the United States to increase its exports to Asia has put the security of the country's export markets at serious risk. recent agreement between OPEC member and non-members on reducing oil production has contributed greatly to the expansion of US production.

In the Naseri era, significant changes have taken place in most areas of Iranian life. the focus of these changes can be found in Zoroastrian’s Collective life of Iran and especially in Yazd because these changes did not just cover the worldly aspects of their lives, but also their collective life. The main issue of this research, which is based on the method of historical sociology, is to describe and explain this changes by emphasizing the role of the Indian Persians. The findings of the study indicate that the few elites were found willing to share their accomplishments in Iran, and particularly in Yazd, for these achievements. They used various methods for influencing the Zoroastrian society of the country and for advancing their changes through a variety of ways, such as: asking for help from Britain lure, bribe, flattery and threat the rulers of the time, take advantage of the Qajar kings' limited attention to social reform and their own initiatives. This Elites at first transform the Zoroastrian community of Yazd through the establishment of Panjaits and through this they were able to bring about wide-ranging reforms in the social, cultural, educational spheres, Zoroastrians restriction and revived religious rituals.

The main issue of the present research is to explain the causes of the emergence of ethnic political actions in different status of governance in Iran with an emphasis on the dialectic of democracy and development, while the required mood of interaction between the state and ethnicities has been identified. The research method is a qualitative comparative-historical that is used in the theoretical framework of Charles Tilly's social movements to explain two democracy and developmental components. As a result of the research, the era before the Islamic Revolution was non-democratic state with low development capacity because of Assimilation and the early years of the revolution is democratic capacity with a low capacity because of tolerant approach. In the final stages of the war, Sazandegi, the ninth and tenth governments and the Etedal, the capacity of the government has risen, because of the necessity of the development of infrastructure, and the improvement of the economic and social situation but the level of democracy has diminished because of security and countering Separatism. Finally, the era of Eslahat is seen as an optimal state of a democratic state with a high development potential.

Sayed Jamal al-Din Asadabadi, with a new look at wisdom and the introduction of a new classification of sciences, set a new age appropriate for political science and philosophy of politics and created a major change in public opinion of his time that had an impact until that time. The current foot is flat. In his view, wisdom should lead to change in the individual and society and bring about favorable effects for society. The present study seeks to show how Seyed Jamal defined this transformation of political wisdom and how this new perspective relates to religion. He seems to have done so by re-dividing the sciences, explaining the position of political philosophy and politics in contemporary times, critiquing and re-examining the functions of wisdom in the modern age, and providing reasonable and the emphasis on education and rational criteria for efficient social interpretation of the Qur'an and religion.

According to Huntington, quantitative growth and qualitative change of a new middle class lead to the development of civil institutions and the decline of authoritarian symbols, and majority for political changes are supported. The question is that why the process of political changes has not been materialized in spite of this class increase in Saudi Arabia and Iraq? Based on the theory of transition to democracy and the comparative method, findings show that both countries are similar in increasing symbolic features of emerged middle classes, such as the development of higher education, bureaucracy and per capita income. However, due to cultural barriers, the rentier nature of the government, the patronage relationship, and the negative role of the external factor, any role in advancing democratization is excluded from this class, and tactical liberalization from above may lead to revolutionary change if democratic demands are not met, and may cause a general uprising. Political instability and structures imposed by American after the collapse of the Baathist regime are also responsible for dysfunction of this classes in Iraq in the establishment of democracy while Iraq has passed the first process of democratization by the collapse regime of Saddam and entered the second phase of democratic institutional consolidation, yet Saudi Arabia has faced serious barriers in her first phase.

Along with the profound structural changes in China's political economy, its foreign assistance has rapidly increased to a wide range of countries, especially African societies, in the early years of the new century. This phenomenon, as well as many other phenomena associated with the "emergence of China," has sparked a lot of controversy about the motives and consequences of this transformation, which has not yet been addressed in our country. In this regard, the present paper, regardless of the implications of this evolution, examines its causes and context by referring to Beijing's motivations as donors and the needs of African societies as recipients in the context of the core question of the article. The hypothesis that the article examines by descriptive-analytic method is that the rapid increase of Chinese foreign aid to African countries in recent years is primarily due to the international requirements for responding to structural changes in China's domestic political economy and the alignment of the needs of African with Beijing foreign assistance. So, it can be predicted that the presence of China in the Africa will continue to increase in the coming years, and foreign aid will continue to be considered by Beijing officials as one of the main means for establishing this wider presence.

With the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, then recruitment of Mujahedeen from all over the world, and ultimately formation of al-Qaeda; the world faced with a new phenomenon and that understanding the nature and origins of the group and became a serious priority. The purpose of this study is recognizing the Identity transformation trend of a group called Arab-Afghans, and understanding the roots of the identity gap under the concepts of "self" and "other" as a model in formation of al-Qaeda and fundamentalist Islamic groups. It done by Focusing on the process of Arab-Afghan actions in three phases: local jihad, jihad on the margins of Islamic countries, and global jihad; As well as consideration of identity components in three ways: Goals, Common norms, and Equivalence-differences, It seems that Transition process in the sacred Jihad and al-Qaeda agenda are influenced by the transformation of identity and changing norms due to changing circumstances. This study seeks to answer the factors affecting the formation and transformation of Arab-Afghan identities; and assessing the hypothesis that Globalization, and the formation of the network society as an independent variable, and not paying attention to the beliefs of Muslim groups has led to the formation of Resistance Identity among Arab-Afghans.